WWRC 96-03
Improved Dynamic Reliability Model for
Hydraulic Design
Abstract
An improved dynamic reliability model is developed for hydraulic design.
In the model the mean rate of occurrence of flood events is compatible
with the lower bound of integration of the loading function. In addition,
the model is consistent with the assumption that flood events above the
threshold defined by the design flood follows a Poisson process. If actual
design floods are the same, regardless of changes between the safety factor
and the design flood, the same reliability results can be obtained from this
model. Compared with other reliability models, the results obtained by the
current model can be explained on a more rigorous basis physically and
theoretically. The improved model considers hydrologic and hydraulic
uncertainties and can be used both to design a new hydraulic structure and
to evaluate the reliability level of existing structures.
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