WWRC 93-05
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Pit-Migration Model
Abstract
Sand and gravel mining From a river bed results in irregular pits on
the river bed. The migration ot the pits might potentially threaten the safety of
downstream bridge piers and other in-stream hydraulic structures. Models were
developed to simulate the movement of pits for predicting the effect of migrating
pits on in-stream structures. In view of random characteristics inherently residing
in hydraulic and hydrologic processes, it is essential for an engineer to assess the
overall uncertainly features of a hydraulic model output subjected to its stochastic
input parameters. As an illustration, this paper analyzes the uncertainties of a pit
migration model recently proposed by Lee et al. (1990) using three methods including
the first-order variance estimation method, point estimation technique, and
Latin hypercubic sampling. Comparisons of merits and limitations of these methods
are also made.
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