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WWRC 89-30
Uncertainty on Travel Time in Kinematic Wave Channel Routing


Channel flow routing provides information on the movement of flood wave as it travels downstream. From the flood forecast viewpoint, it is desirable to have some knowledge about the expected arrival time of peak flow. However, many parameters involved in the flow routing model, in reality, can not be quantified with certainty. In this paper, a probabilistic analysis using the Mellin transform is performed to assess the uncertainty in computing the travel time of flood wave based on the kinematic wave model. Information about the uncertainty of the arrival time of flood peak may have a potential impact on decision making relating to various contingency plans in attempting to alleviate the potential flood damage.

89-30 Table of Contents
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